A liquidity shortage from the reasonable to the gradual process

 From the beginning of November 2008 to double prices on the Shanghai Composite Index, plays the role can not be ignored factor is the mobility. And past liquidity is different is that this is the state in order to stimulate the economy and the implementation of appropriate monetary policies, and constantly rising sharply the amount of new loans formed a positive correlation with the index relation. Zuizhong a result of this trend is the current round of market direction and are closely related to the supply of funds. So when the new loans 从 June 2009 slipped to 1.5 trillion 355.9 billion yuan in July of the time, began to put on the Shanghai index plunge 20% in 11 trading days of the fall trend.
we will present the excess liquidity before the return from the relaxed to a reasonable level of said partial it as the first inflection point of liquidity, then for the market, looking for a second inflection point mm from a reasonable level of liquidity to Duanque mm to Xiande particularly important. the first time my blog I have a point, that is, it Class inflection point late in the fourth quarter at the earliest to the formation of the first quarter of next year, before that, the situation is difficult liquidity contraction will occur.
the other hand, reduced by foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus and actual use of FDI received after hot money scale shows that since March 2009 from a net outflow of hot money inflow into the net after the marked increase in foreign exchange put, this is also urge China to become the first bottoming out an important reason for the country. According to the present point of view of many sell-side institutions, China is still relatively loose monetary policies and more investment opportunities, will continue to attract foreign capital inflows of hot money inflows and foreign exchange invested in the second half is expected to maintain the current trend.
more importantly, from day care congenial The latest statistics show that in the two cities as of August 20 has been published semi-annual performance of 876 listed companies, although the first half of the total 114.03 billion yuan of net profit fell 18.78%, but excluding non-comparable company, the second quarter, the chain 51.91% of the growth has occurred. Thus, under the expected economic recovery, the listed company's performance in the second half of the next will be largely about the market trend. from the East Securities estimates that while 1-5 All profits of industrial enterprises in January dropped by 23%, but its recovery is faster, it is expected throughout the year (including 12 month) is expected to grow 19%. Although this measure is far less than optimistic about the Industrial Securities listed companies for 2009 is expected to results of the growth rate of 28.11% year on year, but this is sufficient to support the A shares under the current market average price-earnings ratio of 25 times.
conclusion is:
(1) The major impact of negative factors in the short term,UGG boots, it is the impact on market the valuation of mid-run performance of listed companies, etc., and no real impact. It is I think the market will not decline, the depth of the decline. But after a round of adjustments after the needs of the popular re-gathered time, therefore, is the recent market trends may be repeated, but this is just to provide the market opportunities for investors, many bargain hunters.
(2) However, due to rising inflation and credit growth expected in 2010 on the six months to decline significantly, there may be the first quarter of this year or next year, turned into a reverse from a reasonable level of liquidity shortages. the introduction of policy measures may be divided into three steps, the effectiveness of measures taken and the intensity will gradually increase. I the fourth quarter of this year will be adjusted the policy direction, accompanied by 50 basis points of the deposit reserve ratio increase. in the economic overheating and inflationary pressures show the signal further, the Government introduced in 2010 will be more intensive control measures, N times, including interest rates.
(3), but I, as a value investor, usually a longer-term perspective on the stock market. No matter how the changing stock market, long-term investors, fundamental analysis, or must, as a buy into the main basis for stocks or bonds. In general, long-term support for China's bullish stock market's basic strength is still strong, but the variable is increasing in the short term. Based on this understanding, Buying, long-term holders of our long-term is obviously only proven choice of investors. now support long-term bullish stock market of the main reasons include the following aspects:
First, valuations are still supporting the market prices. static, the current valuation of around 23 times earnings. dynamic view , the current market price-earnings ratio of 21 times. contrast the equilibrium value of 28 times the level it should be said, the current market valuation is not too high, at least be able to see 30% upside. We talked about early March 5,UGG boots cheap, 4000 is the year's target point.
second, gradual climb chain performance, will further promote the market of your life. Historical experience shows that raw material prices rose after falling sharply the process, promote the performance of listed companies will be progressively higher,UGG shoes, This process will just come down with the corresponding quarter of 2008. the United States around 1933, and Japan,Bailey UGG boots, the United States in 1974 can refer to the situation before and after.
Third, because China's large population and the causes of accelerated urbanization, China premium long-term good. Despite the emergence of the current land prices rose narrowing, but the premise is still valid long-term bullish.
Fourth, historical experience shows that the Depression, or stagflation the first year after treatment, In most cases, the stock market will continue to take a good. That is, the first year after the big bear market position should be sustained. China Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan, the U.S. experience is also useful.
Fifth, God shares their movements. not to see to Warren Buffett, Li Ka-shing's active selling trends. Moreover, the Dow 9,000 Buffett still bullish, especially in long-term bullish on China. This is a coordinate of the target, but also more important.